How Quickly They Forget
The decision by the San Francisco Giants to give Barry Zito a seven-year, $126 million contract brings to mind the old saying about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting the results to change.
These owners and general managers always think the guy they sign is going to be different, and maybe it will be so this time for Zito. But even though he is still months from ever throwing a pitch for the Giants, there is plenty of reason to believe that this signing was a big and very expensive mistake. Forget about the amount of the contract, as hard as that may be to do, and think about its length. Seven years for a pitcher? When's the last time a contract even as long as five years for a pitcher worked out well for a team? Don't forget to get back to me on that.
I acknowledge that Zito is just 28 and has proven to be durable, at least by today's standards, having pitched more than 200 innings in each of his six full seasons. But he is only 41-34 in his last three seasons, and his best ERA during that time is 3.83. How much will Zito improve on his recent performance in the next 2-3 years, even given that he will be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium? Hard to predict, of course, but to justify that kind of money the difference had better be dramatic. And how will Zito perform in years 5-7 of the contract? There is simply no reason to believe that those years will be even as good as -- and instead almost certainly will be worse than -- what Zito has done the past couple of seasons.
Finally, here are two more words that should have given the Giants great pause: Mike Hampton. Remember him? He was the must-have lefty free agent who after the 2000 season signed an 8-year, $121 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. Two years later he was dealt to the Marlins and then to the Braves. Since signing his mega-deal his record is 53-48, and he didn't pitch at all in 2006. And his contract still has two more years to run.
Welcome to the future, Giants fans.
These owners and general managers always think the guy they sign is going to be different, and maybe it will be so this time for Zito. But even though he is still months from ever throwing a pitch for the Giants, there is plenty of reason to believe that this signing was a big and very expensive mistake. Forget about the amount of the contract, as hard as that may be to do, and think about its length. Seven years for a pitcher? When's the last time a contract even as long as five years for a pitcher worked out well for a team? Don't forget to get back to me on that.
I acknowledge that Zito is just 28 and has proven to be durable, at least by today's standards, having pitched more than 200 innings in each of his six full seasons. But he is only 41-34 in his last three seasons, and his best ERA during that time is 3.83. How much will Zito improve on his recent performance in the next 2-3 years, even given that he will be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium? Hard to predict, of course, but to justify that kind of money the difference had better be dramatic. And how will Zito perform in years 5-7 of the contract? There is simply no reason to believe that those years will be even as good as -- and instead almost certainly will be worse than -- what Zito has done the past couple of seasons.
Finally, here are two more words that should have given the Giants great pause: Mike Hampton. Remember him? He was the must-have lefty free agent who after the 2000 season signed an 8-year, $121 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. Two years later he was dealt to the Marlins and then to the Braves. Since signing his mega-deal his record is 53-48, and he didn't pitch at all in 2006. And his contract still has two more years to run.
Welcome to the future, Giants fans.
posted by FCB at 4:08 PM
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